Letter to SF Chronicle:
Editor:California's recall law flies in the face of democracy. In the general election, Davis won with 47% of the vote, his Republican opponent got 42%, and minor candidates got 11%. Suppose in the recall everyone votes exactly the same way as before: 47% no recall (i.e. keep Davis), 42% to some Republican, and 11% to others. Nobody has budged an inch. The voters will then have spoken--twice in a row--to say they prefer Davis to his opponents. And yet, the Republican becomes Governor. Is that the "consent of the governed" that our country was founded on? There should be a Constitutional challenge and this crazy law should be thrown out.
Explanation:
The way the recall election works is you vote on two questions:
If >50% of the voters vote no on question 1, Davis stays in office.
If >50% vote yes on question 1, Davis is out and whoever gets the most votes in question 2 becomes Governor. The CA Democratic party is saying no Democrats will run, because they want people to vote against the recall. They MAY change their minds if polling indicates Davis will be removed.
In my reading, Davis is unpopular and will get less than 50%. We know that because he got less than 50% in the general election, and even fewer people like him now. But he became governor despite his unpopularity (i.e. with < 50%) because every other candidate was even less popular than he was. The recall election is likely to come out the same way: Davis unpopular, every other candidate even less popular, yet the #2 finisher becomes Governor. If the #2 finisher in an election is supposed to become Governor, they could have just done that in the general election and skipped the recall.
My guess is Davis will get around 45%, some Republican (Schwarzenegger or Riordan) will get around 35%, other candidates will split the rest, Davis will be out and the Republican will be in. That sounds nuts to me. It doesn't sound like consent of the governed, if the candidate with the most votes is declared the loser. There's not even any electoral college kludge to excuse the result.